Backlog Payment Forecast

Filing-to-payday gap: Observed across all 9 confirmed paid months — consistently 2–3 days. Prediction ranges use 2–3 day spread.

Inter-wave interval: Wave 1 filed 8 May, Wave 2 filed 12 May (+4 days), Wave 3 filed 13 May (+1 day), Current cycle filed 20 May (+7 days). Average 3–5 day gap used for projections.

Wave size: Each backlog wave processes 2–3 months based on observed batching. 10 confirmed undated months = minimum 4 backlog waves.

Current cycle independence: The Jun 2026 current-cycle payment always files separately around the 20th of the month, regardless of backlog wave position. These are never merged.

Flagged months: Months with reason flags (e.g. alternative income) that show outcome=approved are included in the undated queue — Jul 2022 confirms SASSA pays these regardless.